Tomorrow continues one of the great weekends in sports - NFL Wild-Card Playoffs. Today we will look at the Sunday games and their potential impact on earnings and guarantees. All data can be found at www.protradereport.com.
Stats for today’s Arizona-Atlanta and San Diego-Indianapolis games are reflected in my NFL playoff projections and NFL guarantees pages.
Baltimore at Miami - 1:00 EST - CBS
First, the teams. The Ravens are priced expecting a win, whereas the Dolphins, playing at home, are currently priced around their earnings. Early Miami success will jolt their price upwards.
|
Team
|
Current Earnings
|
Current Price
|
Current
|
Win Wild Card
|
|
Miami Dolphins
|
130.00
|
134.41
|
-3.3%
|
11.6%
|
|
Baltimore Ravens
|
120.00
|
140.53
|
-14.6%
|
-0.4%
|
Looking at the Dolphins players, the six IPO'd players not named Wilford are already 100% earned and will continue to build on their earnings throughout the game. With a win, they would all be fantastic projected buys. The only short on this team is WIlford, as he has been all year.
|
|
Current
|
Current
|
Current
|
Current
|
Wild Card
|
|
Player
|
Earnings
|
Price
|
E/P %
|
Buy/Short %
|
Buy/Short %
|
|
Dan Carpenter
|
114.00
|
103.82
|
109.8%
|
9.8%
|
16.7%
|
|
Ricky Williams
|
113.80
|
107.68
|
105.7%
|
5.7%
|
12.3%
|
|
Ronnie Brown
|
180.64
|
171.06
|
105.6%
|
5.6%
|
12.2%
|
|
Chad Pennington
|
218.32
|
210.19
|
103.9%
|
3.9%
|
10.4%
|
|
Ted Ginn Jr.
|
124.50
|
123.28
|
101.0%
|
1.0%
|
7.3%
|
|
Anthony Fasano
|
87.40
|
86.88
|
100.6%
|
0.6%
|
6.9%
|
|
Ernest Wilford
|
2.50
|
43.71
|
5.7%
|
-31.4%
|
-30.5%
|
Looking at the Ravens players, the guys at the top will be good buys win or lose, but great buys with a win. Heap and McGahee are going to continue to be good shorts barring a deep playoff run.
|
|
Current
|
Current
|
Current
|
Current
|
Wild Card
|
|
Player
|
Earnings
|
Price
|
E/P %
|
Buy/Short %
|
Buy/Short %
|
|
Matt Stover
|
127.00
|
115.44
|
110.0%
|
10.0%
|
16.9%
|
|
Mark Clayton
|
107.12
|
102.72
|
104.3%
|
4.3%
|
10.8%
|
|
Le'Ron McClain
|
166.50
|
161.06
|
103.4%
|
3.4%
|
9.8%
|
|
Derrick Mason
|
132.00
|
128.15
|
103.0%
|
3.0%
|
9.4%
|
|
Joe Flacco
|
181.14
|
180.64
|
100.3%
|
0.3%
|
6.5%
|
|
Ray Rice
|
73.92
|
80.06
|
92.3%
|
-7.7%
|
-0.6%
|
|
Todd Heap
|
56.30
|
77.56
|
72.6%
|
-27.4%
|
-22.9%
|
|
Willis McGahee
|
120.40
|
178.96
|
67.3%
|
-32.7%
|
-27.5%
|
Philadelphia at Minnesota - 4:30 - FOX
Looking at the teams, the Eagles are priced expecting a victory in this one. Minnesota is currently positioned to be a decent buy with the home victory.
|
Team
|
Current Earnings
|
Current Price
|
Current
|
Win Wild Card
|
|
Minnesota Vikings
|
120.00
|
131.18
|
-8.5%
|
6.7%
|
|
Philadelphia Eagles
|
105.00
|
126.31
|
-16.9%
|
-1.0%
|
Studying the Vikings players, there are some pretty good buys that will become great buys with a victory. Only Sidney Rice appears to be shortable.
|
|
Current
|
Current
|
Current
|
Current
|
Wild Card
|
|
Player
|
Earnings
|
Price
|
E/P %
|
Buy/Short %
|
Buy/Short %
|
|
Ryan Longwell
|
145.00
|
131.95
|
109.9%
|
9.9%
|
16.8%
|
|
Visanthe Shiancoe
|
101.60
|
94.24
|
107.8%
|
7.8%
|
14.5%
|
|
Chester Taylor
|
120.64
|
112.99
|
106.8%
|
6.8%
|
13.4%
|
|
Bernard Berrian
|
149.08
|
141.00
|
105.7%
|
5.7%
|
12.3%
|
|
Tarvaris Jackson
|
82.14
|
82.46
|
99.6%
|
-0.4%
|
10.7%
|
|
Gus Frerotte
|
108.98
|
117.53
|
92.7%
|
-7.3%
|
1.2%
|
|
Adrian Peterson
|
240.72
|
297.80
|
80.8%
|
-19.2%
|
-13.8%
|
|
Sidney Rice
|
38.10
|
61.41
|
62.0%
|
-38.0%
|
-33.2%
|
The Eagles players are split down the middle. There are already four pretty good buys and five good shorts. A win would make the top four even better buys, while a loss would make those bottom five solid guaranteed shorts.
|
|
Current
|
Current
|
Current
|
Current
|
Wild Card
|
|
Player
|
Earnings
|
Price
|
E/P %
|
Buy/Short %
|
Buy/Short %
|
|
David Akers
|
156.00
|
140.76
|
110.8%
|
10.8%
|
17.8%
|
|
DeSean Jackson
|
131.39
|
122.37
|
107.4%
|
7.4%
|
14.1%
|
|
Correll Buckhalter
|
93.58
|
89.03
|
105.1%
|
5.1%
|
12.6%
|
|
Donovan McNabb
|
243.34
|
240.20
|
101.3%
|
1.3%
|
7.6%
|
|
Brian Westbrook
|
215.80
|
268.31
|
80.4%
|
-19.6%
|
-13.8%
|
|
Hank Baskett
|
62.00
|
77.69
|
79.8%
|
-20.2%
|
-14.9%
|
|
L.J. Smith
|
47.80
|
66.76
|
71.6%
|
-28.4%
|
-22.9%
|
|
Kevin Curtis
|
51.00
|
85.93
|
59.4%
|
-40.6%
|
-34.1%
|
|
Reggie Brown
|
31.80
|
53.85
|
59.1%
|
-40.9%
|
-35.0%
|
Please Trade Responsibly
Utkman
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